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Web 2.0 Summit 08: Mary Meeker (Morgan Stanley)

Web 2.0 Summit 08: Mary Meeker (Morgan Stanley)

  • The recession has been a long time coming. The root of the problem was that 10-15 years ago there was a mandate to increase home ownerships.
  • In 2005 savings went negative.
  • It was easy to get credit and homes were going up in value.
  • Foreign ownership of US treasuries is up twofold at 60%.
  • The national debt is 3 times the GDP.
  • Consumer spending was down 3% sequentially. October was worse than Sept and Sept was worse than August. GDP growth had a downward bias.
  • The stock market is a leading indicator of things to come. The Chinese market is down 71%, The Russian market is down 61% and Asian market is down about 50%.
  • The ones hurt most are financials, consumer discretionary and telecom services.
  • Tech spending and ad spending are tied to GDP growth.
  • If GDP stays the same, we still cannot predict with available data how the internet will do.
  • Online ad spending was down 27 % from 2000 to 2002. We do not see that decline now.
  • We had flat tech spending in 2002.
  • We see a faster deceleration in the 3rd and 4th quarters.
  • When things were bad in 2002, eyeballs grew, innovation grew and revenue followed.
  • On the digital consumer growth there is rapid growth in social networks and VoIP but this means much lower CPMs.
  • Youtube, Facebook, Skype, Paypal have all grown.
  • Youtube has become the #2 search engine.
  • If Skype were a carrier, it would be the biggest.
  • Ad supply is greater than demand leading to lower CPMs
  • Mobile innovation has been huge and this means wealth will be created and destroyed.
  • 64% of Austrian broadband subscribers use cellular modems.
  • People want wireless access everywhere.
  • When Google launched G1, Motorola announced that it was creating an Android. Apple announced that you do not need an NDA for its SDK.
  • With innovation in Google and Apple, the US will be a mobile marketplace leader in 10 years.
  • 3G will be at 22% subscribers. This will make mobile internet more interesting.
  • Emerging markets see a lot of growth.
  • Top 10 emerging markets(China, India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Russia) will surpass top 10 developed markets in 2008.
  • Companies with cogent business models will survive and thrive.
  • People will look for more value on the internet. Some companies will survive.
  • Amazon recommendation engine has done very well and will gain more.
  • Search will be even more important.
  • CPMs are under a little more pressure because of targetability
  • We have 1.3 Billion users on the internet and thus there are lots of opportunities to monetize.

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