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My Web 2.0 surfings for 10-15-2008

TED: Chris Anderson (Wired): Technology's Long Tail
I did not hear anything about the long tail in this speech.

  • In business, one needs to forecast interests, and also build a product.
  • Answer why and when about about the product
  • The unified theory on technology trends states that there are four stages for a technology to get.
  • Each Stage is a collision.
  • These stages are:
  1. The technology must fall below a critical price.
  2. It's users must rise above a critical mass.
  3. It must displace another technology
  4. The technology must then commoditize
  • WIFI has reached the 1st two stages.
  • The DVD has gone through all the four above stages.
  • Netflix could capitalize on the DVD model as DVDs was smaller in size to VHS tapes.As DVDs get cheaper, the premium brands like Sony loose out.
  • Gene sequencing is falling in price to 40 million from billions a few years ago.At the same time, more genes are being found
  • Another example is the generic drug. The effectof the generic drug is is dramatic. The cost of these is typicallyis now 50c a day. More people can be treated cheaply.
  • Linux has now switched to critical mass.
  • The hybrid car is another technology. Electric motors are now being introduced. This can lead to new era of automobiles
  • VOIP is another example. Skype has 4M users.
  • Harddrive space is being made almost free these days. This is an example of commoditization
  • Fiber Optics: Calls to India costed $2 per minute in 1990. The prices are now about 7c a minute.
See the presentation here

Eric Schmidt's short take on 3.0

  • Web 2.0 is mostly Ajax.
  • Web 3.0 is about applications in the 'cloud' which are fast and customizable. They are distributed virally: Social Networks, email.
  • This is dramatically different from the mainframe and the PC era.
See the presentation here.


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