Loading...Web 2.0 Summit 08: Mary Meeker (Morgan Stanley)
- The recession has been a long time coming. The root of the problem was that 10-15 years ago there was a mandate to increase home ownerships.
- In 2005 savings went negative.
- It was easy to get credit and homes were going up in value.
- Foreign ownership of US treasuries is up twofold at 60%.
- The national debt is 3 times the GDP.
- Consumer spending was down 3% sequentially. October was worse than Sept and Sept was worse than August. GDP growth had a downward bias.
- The stock market is a leading indicator of things to come. The Chinese market is down 71%, The Russian market is down 61% and Asian market is down about 50%.
- The ones hurt most are financials, consumer discretionary and telecom services.
- Tech spending and ad spending are tied to GDP growth.
- If GDP stays the same, we still cannot predict with available data how the internet will do.
- Online ad spending was down 27 % from 2000 to 2002. We do not see that decline now.
- We had flat tech spending in 2002.
- We see a faster deceleration in the 3rd and 4th quarters.
- When things were bad in 2002, eyeballs grew, innovation grew and revenue followed.
- On the digital consumer growth there is rapid growth in social networks and VoIP but this means much lower CPMs.
- Youtube, Facebook, Skype, Paypal have all grown.
- Youtube has become the #2 search engine.
- If Skype were a carrier, it would be the biggest.
- Ad supply is greater than demand leading to lower CPMs
- Mobile innovation has been huge and this means wealth will be created and destroyed.
- 64% of Austrian broadband subscribers use cellular modems.
- People want wireless access everywhere.
- When Google launched G1, Motorola announced that it was creating an Android. Apple announced that you do not need an NDA for its SDK.
- With innovation in Google and Apple, the US will be a mobile marketplace leader in 10 years.
- 3G will be at 22% subscribers. This will make mobile internet more interesting.
- Emerging markets see a lot of growth.
- Top 10 emerging markets(China, India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Russia) will surpass top 10 developed markets in 2008.
- Companies with cogent business models will survive and thrive.
- People will look for more value on the internet. Some companies will survive.
- Amazon recommendation engine has done very well and will gain more.
- Search will be even more important.
- CPMs are under a little more pressure because of targetability
- We have 1.3 Billion users on the internet and thus there are lots of opportunities to monetize.
Read more...
